*Data and analysis updated as of April 2, 2020
Principia Consulting has initiated COVID-19 coverage to track and calibrate the impact of the coronavirus on residential construction down to the zip code level. This update provides interactive views of the rapidly changing market for new home construction. Future updates will also include remodeling and repair and specific building product category impacts from the coronavirus. This analysis is fluid and will continue to evolve as COVID-19 progresses throughout the country and government restrictions are added or lifted.
Cities and states throughout the country are issuing stay-at-home (SAH) and shelter-in-place (SIP) ordinances specifying which businesses, including construction, are essential and non-essential. These ordinances are having an ongoing effect on construction activity and building products demand.
The United States was projected to build 2.7 billion square feet of new residential construction in 2020 prior to the impact of COVID-19. A complete review of the ordinances enacted to date shows the impact on construction activity by geography and the potential influence on building product demand and distribution. A few major takeaways include:
- 13% of projected construction activity is in municipalities not currently under any legal restriction
- 15% of projected activity is currently in municipalities that are prohibiting most forms of construction
- 91% of multifamily housing falls within the most affected areas
Currently the United States’ top three Census divisions South Atlantic, West South Central and Mountain by volume are relatively less affected. 14% of projected new construction in these divisions is in municipalities with no current ordinance, while only 4% is in municipalities with most construction prohibited.
*Data as of April 2, 2020
Very few unaffected municipalities remain. Most affected areas are currently along the Pacific Coast, North Atlantic Coast, and Great Lakes regions.
*Data as of April 2, 2020
Principia’s ongoing COVID-19 coverage will monitor the impact on residential construction and building product demand including:
- Frequent updates on government restrictions relating to construction activity
- Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on construction
activity segmented by:
- Single family vs. multifamily
- New construction, discretionary remodeling, and emergency repair
- Scenario analysis on impact of COVID-19 over time
In addition to tracking SAH/SIP ordinances, Principia is working to independently verify the status of construction exemptions while simultaneously monitoring COVID-19 case data to determine the impact on residential construction. Our research team is applying its econometric modeling to evaluate the impact on construction in each hot spot based on the timing of the start of the spread and the likely duration within each area.
For more information about Principia’s COVID-19 coverage, click here.