*Data and analysis updated as of May 28, 2020

Principia Consulting is continuing COVID-19 coverage to track and calibrate the impact of the coronavirus on residential construction and building products demand. This update provides interactive views of the rapidly changing data on confirmed cases by state and how it relates to demand for building materials. Our next update will use scenarios to help predict the impact of construction restrictions and slowdowns of varying durations of the crisis. The ongoing group of analyses is fluid and will evolve as the crisis progresses in different areas of country.

As of May 27, 2020, there were 1.70 million confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States. The severity of the situation varies by state and even by county or city and its potential impact on shipments is detailed below.

Principia’s estimate of supplier revenue across eight building product categories within our BuilderSeries® suite of online data tools was $56.2 billion prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, with 17 states with an above average case load (more than 4.72 cases per 1000 capita) accounting for $15.8 billion of building products demand. Our state-level analysis comparing demand data with confirmed case data highlights differences in potential virus impact by product category and between new construction versus repair & remodel. A few major takeaways include:

  • States with above average case load make up 33% of remodeling and repair demand compared to 20% for new construction
  • Railing has the highest percentage of its demand in states with an above average case load at 38%; roofing has the lowest at 26%
  • High case levels are likely to impact construction activity even in the absence of formal government prohibitions

Data as of May 28, 2020

Data as of May 28, 2020

Principia’s ongoing COVID-19 coverage will monitor the impact on residential construction and building product demand including:

  • Frequent updates on government restrictions relating to construction activity
  • Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on construction activity segmented by:
  • Single family vs. multifamily
  • New construction, discretionary remodeling, and emergency repair
  • Scenario analysis on impact of COVID-19 over time

In addition to tracking SAH/SIP ordinances, Principia is working to independently verify the status of construction exemptions while simultaneously monitoring COVID-19 case data to determine the impact on residential construction. Our research team is applying its econometric modeling to evaluate the impact on construction in each hot spot based on the timing of the start of the spread and the likely duration within each area.

Read our first Special COVID-19 Bulletin about the impact on residential new construction, here, and for more information about subscribing to our COVID-19 coverage, click here.

Sources:
Principia Demand Data
Case data from Johns Hopkins CSSE