Featuring in-depth data and insights backed by primary research – now available in PDF, Excel and our interactive portal.

Limited demand and wood alternative inventory destocking were largely to blame for a slowdown in the residential decking market in 2022. Conditions are expected to worsen in 2023 before things turn around in 2024 and 2025.

Key factors that will support decking market demand through 2025 include:

  • Repair and remodeling (R&R) of existing decks will continue to dominate the category, and see a single-digit increase in growth in 2023
  • R&R addition is projected to see similar growth through 2025 as homeowners build new decks and supply constraints have eased.
  • Following a 9% drop in new construction volume between 2022 and 2023, new construction will rebound and once again represent 5% of decking demand by 2025
  • Demand growth for wood alternatives is forecast to outpace growth in traditional wood demand

An increase in residential decking pricing helped offset flat volume growth

Residential decking demand stayed steady at 3.8 billion linear feet in 2022 resulting in flat year-over-year volume growth. There was, however, a value increase of 4.5% due to higher product prices throughout the decking category. Overall, 2022 market demand for decking was mainly driven by homeowners becoming cautious in an uncertain economy. Consequently, two-steppers and pro dealers purchased less from wood alternative decking suppliers.

Despite the growth of wood alternatives, wood remains the category’s biggest player

As of Q1 2023, wood represents three-quarters of decking demand by volume. Inflation and interest rate hikes will impact annualized volume growth through 2025 and fail to match the 4.4% annualized growth experienced in 2020 through 2022. Overall, decking volume is projected to grow 2.2% annually through 2025.

Negative growth in larger regions impacted overall demand

Overall, residential decking demand grew a meager 0.2% in 2022 as two of the larger regions—Southeast and West—experienced negative growth and the Midwest remained flat. Only in the Southwest—the smallest decking region—and Northeast did demand slightly increase.

Download the table of contents and list of figures for the written portion of our decking demand product line up. For a full demo of our interactive portal or to inquire about the cost to purchase data please email Sales@principiaconsulting.com