Here is a snapshot of 2018’s building materials demand and supply. Information included in the graphic below is pulled directly from Principia’s DemandBuilder®, SupplyBuilder®, and GrowthBuilder®.
Now Available – Pro and Retail Channels in LBM Distribution
Pro and Retail Channels in LBM Distribution 2019 provides a vital benchmark analysis for pro and retail distribution revenue by dealer/ retailer, major product, supplier and region, and provides a year-over-year forecast through 2021. To learn more about this deliverable download the brochure now.
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Commercial Roofing – Now Available
Commercial Roofing 2018 is now available for pre-purchase with full delivery planned for Q4 2018. This latest addition to Principia’s subscription-based data products will be delivered in a series of interactive dashboards and key insights summarized in four sections: Demand, Supply, Growth and Customer Insights.
Commercial Roofing 2018 will provide a vital benchmark analysis for forecasting and business planning. Using 2017 and 2018e as a baseline, this data analyzes demand by material, construction type, distribution channel, supplier and region, and provides a year-over-year forecast through 2021.
To learn more about this expanded scope and deliverable to our ongoing coverage of the commercial roofing market, download the brochure now.
Download Now: Commercial Roofing 2018
Now Available – Commercial Insulation
Commercial Insulation 2018 is now available for pre-purchase with full delivery planned for Q4 2018. This latest addition to Principia’s subscription-based data products will be delivered in a series of interactive dashboards and key insights summarized in four sections: Demand, Supply, Growth and Customer Insights.
Commercial Insulation 2018 will provide a vital benchmark analysis for forecasting and business planning. Using 2017 and 2018e as a baseline, this data analyzes demand by material, construction type, distribution channel, supplier and region, and provides a year-over-year forecast through 2021.
To learn more about this expanded scope and deliverable to our ongoing coverage of the commercial insulation market, download the brochure now.
DOWNLOAD NOW: COMMERCIAL INSULATION 2018
Metal Roofing Market Strong and Building Momentum
The 2017 North American metal roofing market is a $3.3 billion industry at the manufacturer factory gate level according to Principia Consulting’s latest industry report, Metal Roofing 2018. The study includes standing seam, corrugated/ribbed panels, and specialty panels, but excludes cladding and pre-engineered metal buildings.
By all accounts among metal roofing manufacturers, 2017 was a notably strong year for metal roofing and expectations point to another record year in 2018, particularly since some of the growing pains of 2017 have been assimilated and the supply chain is stronger for it. Among the metal roofing contractors surveyed, 75% expect the market to grow over the next three years and suppliers echo similar growth expectations.
Roofing Professionals’ Metal Roofing Growth Expectations, 2017
Top Reasons Cited for Expected Growth, 2017
Growth will be driven by the expansion in both commercial and residential markets as well as by increasing acceptance of metal roofing among property owners as they come to more fully appreciate the robust performance of metal roofing and significant cost savings over the life of a roof. With a CAGR of 7%, metal roofing is expected to reach almost $4 billion in 2020.
Metal Roofing Market: Six Key Growth Drivers
There are several key factors of metal roofing demand that support the strong growth expected in the market including:
- The general economic and construction environment supports continued growth in metal roofing demand to 2020.
- The continued “greening” of North American construction will increase adoption of metal roofing as cool roof energy savings and other environmentally friendly aspects assert stronger appeal to property owners.
- Increasing life-cycle cost awareness bodes well for metal roofing, particularly in the commercial market but also among homeowners.
- Lagging installer base should self-correct as attractive metal margins entice more contractors into the market and manufacturers further invest in contractor training and support.
- Increasing structure in the metal roofing industry will support growth as larger players focus on expanding adoption, installation, and innovation.
- Job-site roll-forming will continue to expedite the supply chain and facilitate metal roofing penetration.
For more details on metal roofing, see Principia’s Metal Roofing 2018 industry Report.
Learn more about Principia BuilderSeries®
Casey Olson
Roofing Industry Analyst
colson@principiaconsulting.com
$3.3 Billion Metal Roofing Market in North America to Grow 7% through 2020 According to Principia Consulting Report
The 2017 North American metal roofing market is a $3.3 billion industry at the manufacturer factory gate level according to Principia Consulting’s latest industry report. The study includes standing seam, corrugated/ribbed panels, and specialty panels, but excludes cladding and pre-engineered metal buildings. Demand originates roughly equally from residential and commercial markets with commercial (including agricultural structures) accounting for slightly more than half.
Metal Roofing Market Strong and Building Momentum
By all accounts among metal roofing manufacturers, 2017 was a notably strong year for metal roofing and expectations point to another record year in 2018, particularly since some of the growing pains of 2017 have been assimilated and the supply chain is stronger for it. As Casey Olson, Principia’s roofing Industry Analyst, points out, “Among the metal roofing contractors surveyed, virtually everyone expects metal roofing to grow significantly over the next three years and suppliers echo these expectations. Growth will be driven by expansion in both commercial and residential markets as well as by increasing acceptance of metal roofing among property owners as they come to more fully appreciate the robust performance of metal roofing and significant cost savings over the life of a roof.” With a CAGR of 7%, metal roofing is expected to reach $4 billion by 2020.
Dominant Channel is Direct to Contractors
Unlike the general roofing market where the specialty 1-step channel dominates product distribution, half of metal roofing products flow directly from the manufacturer to the contractor or installer. A significant portion of this is through the job-site roll-forming function where manufacturers and contractors produce the metal roof panels on-site to specifications on portable roll-forming machines. Not only does this delivery method streamline the supply chain, it allows for greater flexibility in design which architects and specifiers report to be an appealing advantage of metal roofing.
Principia’s Metal Roofing 2018 Industry Report
The Metal Roofing 2018 Industry Report includes market demand by census region and division and is segmented by product type, metal substrate, finish, and fastener, as well as by construction market (residential versus commercial), construction type (new versus repair and remodel), building type, and distribution channel. Using 2017 as a baseline year, the report provides forecasts through 2020 and draws upon interviews with 650 manufacturers, dealers, contractors, and builders as well as commercial property owners and managers and homeowners.
To purchase the report or learn more about the scope and content covered, please contact Frank Dix, Director of Business Development at fdix@principiaconsulting.com.
About Principia Consulting
Principia is a leading research and consulting firm focused exclusively on the building materials and construction industry. For over 20 years, we have helped our clients grow faster and more profitably by providing high quality information, analytics and insights.
Visit www.principiaconsulting.com for more information and the latest building materials and construction industry insights.
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Editorial Contact
Brooke Cowell
bcowell@principiaconsulting.com
610-590-4742
New Report on Metal Roofing Market
By Paul Deffenbaugh,
This year, Principia Consulting, a Malvern, Pa.-based research and consulting firm focused on the building materials and construction industry, will roll out a report on the metal roofing industry. It’s a market that doesn’t often get this kind of attention, and during discussions at METALCON a couple of weeks ago, I learned that many people in the industry are anticipating this report with high expectations.
The shortage of information in the metal roofing industry—and the metal construction industry as a whole—hampers its ability to anticipate trends and identify growth opportunities. Many hope this report will start to address some of that shortage.
There are some surprises in the report, and Casey Olson, Industry analyst at Principia Consulting, recently penned a blog identifying three things about the industry that may surprise you. They are
- Jobsite rollforming is expected to continue as a significant factor in the metal roofing
- Suppliers have the capacity and raw materials to keep up with demand, but there isn’t enough installation capacity
- Metal roofing has caught the interest of the large asphalt manufacturers and commercial building materials manufacturers
Metal Roofing Market: Three Things That May Surprise You
Metal roofing is projected to grow faster than any other roofing product overall. In fact, it is gaining ground in high-end homes based on its longevity and durability as well as the ability to be designed to look like wood shakes or slate and despite its higher initial cost compared to asphalt shingles.
In commercial markets, metal roofing is used in a wide range of building types (retail, office, industrial) and is often utilized for steep slope accent sections in conjunction with low slope sections. Standing seam roofing is the predominant type but curved panels are becoming more prevalent. Lifecycle costs are particularly appealing to commercial property owners.
Metal roof manufacturers are expanding their lines to keep up with demand and even a few asphalt suppliers have stepped into the metal market. So, what does this optimism for the market mean?
1. Job-site roll-forming is expected to continue as a significant factor in the metal roofing
- Principia estimates that roughly 25% of installed metal roofing is field formed, primarily by the contractor, whether independent or part of the metal roofing suppliers’ organization. The portable forming machines made by manufacturers such as New Tech and Roll Former Corp have improved over the last ten years, and are becoming less expensive so that more contractors have invested in them.
- Field forming is helping stimulate industry growth by minimizing shipping and packaging costs, reducing damage from transit, and allowing for significantly longer panels lengths that are not feasible to ship. In addition, it can shorten the lead-time for a contractor to get panels so they are better able to meet customers’ needs and be more nimble in selling and installation process.
- Some metal roofing manufacturers such as Englert and Drexel Metals have contractor programs where the manufacturer handles the engineering, profile design, testing, code compliance, quality assurance, training, and marketing programs, then sells or leases the portable roll-forming machines to contractors and supplies them with coils.
- As appealing as on-site roll-forming may sound, there are still contractors who prefer to have pre-cut panels conveniently delivered and ready to install. There are also other inhibitors to contractor roll-forming such as the upcoming State of Florida’s requirement that each panel be marked with the manufacturer’s information, making it more difficult for field formers to comply with codes.
2. Suppliers have the capacity and raw materials to keep up with demand, but there isn’t enough installation capacity
- Most roofers prefer installing asphalt shingle roofs; installation is easy to learn, fast to install, and simple to fix if there are issues. Consequently, it’s easy to get a new asphalt crew up and running compared to a metal roofing crew. Metal roofing installation involves more craftsmanship and expertise so there are fewer qualified installers.
- However, misperceptions are rampant among contractors about the complexity and challenges of installing metal roofing. Installation is not as hard as they may think but can become complicated due to conflicting instructions from manufacturers providing system-specific instructions. There is demand for more training focused on the details of installation (where to place screws, how many screws to use) rather than just information about the benefits of the product. Often contractors must learn in the field as they go, which dampens contractor adoption overall, and can have detrimental impact on quality.
3. Metal roofing has caught the interest of the large asphalt manufacturers and commercial building materials manufacturers
- Metal roofing supply has been highly fragmented with many family-owned, multi-generational businesses and few large public companies. As market growth has made the industry more attractive it has also stimulated a movement toward consolidation. Some recent M&A activity includes Carlisle acquiring Drexel with whom they had had a standing seam private labeling arrangement. Also this year, Boral acquired the Headwaters stone-coated metal roofing group. Previously there were several other acquisitions of metal roofing manufacturers by large publicly held corporations such as NCI, BlueScope, and Gibraltar. In 2017, while the market is still regionalized, there is an increasing number of participants with a national foot print.
- In addition to the recent acquisition activity, asphalt shingle manufacturer such as CertainTeed and TAMKO have their own metal roofing lines while some metal building manufacturers such as Butler Manufacturing and Varco Pruden offer stand-alone roofing lines.
Principia’s upcoming Metal Roofing 2018 industry report will provide detail around the metal roofing market including market size and growth forecast, voice of customer feedback, channel dynamics and trends, market share review and overall strategic insights into growth of metal roofing. Contact Us today or download the report brochure to Learn More about the report.
Hurricane Harvey’s Potential Impact on Building Materials Demand
Hurricane Harvey has set records for total rainfall and overall damage of residential housing and commercial buildings. Unfortunately, the total economic impact has yet to be realized but the total damage of Hurricane Harvey is estimated to fall between $70 and $108 billion. Rebuilding will take years, similar to other devastating storms such as Katrina, Sandy and Andrew.
So, what does this mean for the building materials industry? How can suppliers, distributors and dealers support the effort over the longer term? One step is to understand the scale of rebuilding required and have sufficient supply of building materials stocked and accessible to the Houston and Beaumont areas. Principia Consulting has compiled an analysis of the level of building materials inventory that may be needed in each product category for residential home rebuilding.
Overall, there are 1.8 million housing units (single and multifamily) in the Houston and Beaumont Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSA) with an estimated total replacement value of $474 billion. Of course, not every housing unit will require replacement but the total existing housing stock gives pause to consider the overall potential level of building required. The detailed map for these two CBSAs in Figure 1 depicts the relative total replacement value of housing at the county level.
Figure 1: Houston & Beaumont CBSAs – Total Housing Replacement Value (in $MM) by County
Source: DemandBuilder® from Principia
These replacement value housing figures can be translated into demand for specific building product categories with Principia’s DemandBuilder® data products. DemandBuilder® Roofing reveals an estimated 54.5 MMSQ of existing roofing in the Houston-Beaumont areas with a replacement value of $3.7 billion in materials alone. The bulk of this volume is in the Harris County area with 35.4 MMSQ valued at $2.4 billion. Although these figures represent 100% replacement, a more complete assessment of the impact on material demand will only be finalized after the complete damage of the storm has been determined. For example, if a quarter of the roofs in Harris county need to be replaced, this would represent 8.9 million squares or $600 million of roofing that would be needed.
Further, as flood damage reports become available, Principia will pinpoint specific estimates of roofing demand at a zip code level to focus on the hardest hit areas. A detailed map of replacement roofing potential by zip code is shown in Figure 2 as an example.
Figure 2: Houston & Beaumont – Roofing Replacement Demand (in $MM) by Zip Code
Source: DemandBuilder® from Principia
Principia is in the process of developing detailed assessments for additional categories including lumber, siding, insulation, flooring, windows, doors and weather resistant barriers for the Houston and Beaumont CBSAs and other regions in Texas and Louisiana affected by the storm.
Contact Principia for further detail on projections for building materials demand within the storm’s affected areas.
With strong predicted growth in the category, dealers need to make sure they’re offering a product lineup that meets the needs of both contractor and consumer.
Michael Berger
LBM JOURNAL
Roofing products are not particularly exciting. Compared to other lumber and building materials such as decks, windows, doors and siding that are extremely visible from the curb and offer immediate visual sizzle, roofing materials can often fail to generate consumer excitement. Still, considering that the U.S. Dept. of Commerce reported new housing starts in January 2017 of 1.25 million—up 10.5% compared to the same month last year— and that a recent report from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey indicated that the average single-family homeowner doesn’t move from their current home for an average of 15 years (meaning that most current homeowners will be facing a reroofing project during their ownership period), roofing materials are a strong category and one that should not be ignored, especially when offered as a complete system rather than as one-off individual products.
As Alex Pecora, Residential Products Manager for CertainTeed Saint-Gobain Roofing, explains, “Most people will only buy one roof in their lifetime. We want everyone to have the best roof they can possibly get, and due to the synergies involved with the different components, a designed systems approach is the best way to build a roof.”
Strong Growth Projected
Demand and projected growth for roofing products is anticipated by Principia to be strong not just for 2017 but for the next two years as well. In 2016, 124 million squares of roofing material were sold, with architectural shingle products leading the pack at 71 million. For 2017, roofing sales are projected at 129.7 million, with the two years following projected at 135.9 million and 140.4 million respectively, with single-family homes leading the way.